Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
The government has slashed by up to 20 per cent the supplies of cheaper domestically produced natural gas to city retailers -- a move that may result in Rs 4-6 per kg hike in the price of CNG sold to automobiles, unless excise duty on the fuel is cut, sources said. Natural gas pumped from below the ground and from under the seabed from sites ranging from the Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal within India is the raw material that is turned into CNG for sale to automobiles and piped cooking gas to households.
'With the US having entered the war, raising the risks of a wider conflict, those impacts could be even more damaging.'
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
'All the government and private offices are functioning.' 'Overall, life is continuing normally.' 'People of Iran are showing spirit and resilience in the face of adversity.'
Essential and strategic items such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products like oil, gas, coal and LNG are exempted from the 27 per cent import duty announced by the US on Wednesday, according to think tank GTRI.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 2.4 per cent rise in its March quarter net profit as store rationalisation in retail business and improved margins in telecom helped offset weakness in mainstay oil and petrochemicals business and higher finance cost. Consolidated net profit of Rs 19,407 crore, or Rs 14.34 per share, in January-March - the fourth quarter of April 2024 to March 2025 fiscal (FY25) - was higher than Rs 18,951 crore, or Rs 14 a share, in the same period a year back, the company said in a statement.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
Urals and Sokol accounted for every 4 out of 5 barrels of Russian supplies to India last year.
'I am not an aspiration-oriented politician.' 'This is the time to redefine politics.' 'Politics of power is not real politics.'
India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
The escalation of conflict in the West Asian region is expected to push already high logistics costs besides hurting trade in sectors such as oil, electronics and agriculture, according to exporters. They said that insurance costs for exports to the countries directly involved in the war could also go up, which will impact Indian exporters' working capital. Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the conflict is already hurting India's trade with countries like Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
After dropping a Rs 5,000 crore plan to fill parts of strategic oil storages, the government will lease out space in the underground rock caverns to domestic and international firms to store oil, a top executive said on Tuesday. India Strategic Petroleum Reserve Ltd has built underground storages at Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and Mangalore and Padur in Karnataka to store 5.33 million tonnes of oil that can be used in any emergency situation like supply disruption or war. UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has already hired half of the 2.5 million tonnes storage capacity at Padur and 1.5 million tonnes facility at Mangalore.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
An inconclusive end to this war will pose high risk for Netanyahu of a cascading demand for a regime change in Israel, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday lowered the inflation projection for the current fiscal to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent earlier, taking into account good agricultural output and falling crude prices.
After HPCL, the government headhunter struggled to find a suitable candidate for the top job at Bharat Petroleum, as most applicants were narrow specialists lacking multidisciplinary experience needed to run a large organisation. The Public Enterprise Selection Board (PESB) last month interviewed a dozen candidates including BPCL director (finance) Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta and its director (refineries) S Khanna but found none suitable for the job of chairman and managing director of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), according to a PESB order.
Ongoing strategic investment into assets abroad, alongside gas purchases being made by India, will soon allow the country to access as much gas as it needs, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on the sidelines of India Energy Week (IEW 2025).
The latest flashpoint in West Asia has derailed India's preliminary plans to resume crude oil imports from Iran, officials said. In January, officials of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas had told Business Standard that the government had been studying proposals for the same, given that India was trying to expand sources of imports. "We are always monitoring the situation when it comes to crude flows.
'Trump is good news for us. Energy poverty is real, and fossil fuels are the answer.'
Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) plans to invest Rs 75,000 crore ($9 billion) each into its new energy business and petrochemical expansion, according to a company presentation. In its FY25 result statement, Ambani said the company has laid a strong foundation for its projects in renewable energy and battery operations. "In the coming quarters, we will see the transition of this business from incubation to operationalisation.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
'He has been one of the clearest thinkers in the history of business.'
The government has slashed allocation of natural gas used for LPG production, and diverted the low-priced fuel to city gas retailers like Indraprastha Gas Ltd and Adani-Total Gas Ltd to meet a part of their requirement for CNG/piped cooking gas supplies, according an official order. The government had in October and November last year cut supplies of low-priced natural gas coming from old fields such as Mumbai High and Bassein fields in the Bay of Bengal, to city gas retailers by as much as 40 per cent in view of limited output.
'...and the country should be impoverished completely.' 'Once this is done, the political class would take over and then play a part in real democracy where the army is under the control of the government, not vice-versa.'
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
Russia dominated Saudi Arabia in oil supplies as the world's fastest-growing major economy for fossil fuels in October, relegating the Kingdom to third place. Iraq was India's top oil supplier, according to the data from Vortexa. Saudi Arabia's decline in India's oil market has coincided with Russia's rise, and ironically occurred amid growing diplomatic ties between Riyadh and New Delhi. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud is visiting India this month to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Adani Ports and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services jumped nearly 6 per cent after the IT services company reported an 11.95 per cent jump in the December quarter net profit to Rs 12,380 crore. Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Infosys and Bajaj Finserv were the other big gainers.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
Russian oil supplies to India will continue to flow unhindered and suppliers will come up with ways to sidestep secondary sanctions, a Russian official told Business Standard.
It bought Rs 410 crore of electoral bonds between financial years 2021-22 and 2023-24, but Reliance said the company is not a subsidiary of any Reliance entity.
Here is a list of Q & As to explain these issues and implications of the US move.
The public sector oil marketing firm stopped supplying fuel to the cash-starved carrier from 12 noon Friday.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
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